Rice Gains for Fifth Day on

Myanmar

 Cyclone, Increased Demand

By Jae Hur and Rattaphol Onsanit

 May 8 (Bloomberg) — Rice gained for a fifth day after a cyclone in Myanmar flooded 5,000 square kilometers (1,930 square miles) of farmland, and Malaysia began imports from Thailand.

Rice futures, which touched a record last month, rose as much as 3.5 percent to $22.35 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade, bringing this year’s increase to 61 percent.

Cyclone Nargis struck the country’s main rice-growing area on May 3, worsening a food crisis that’s triggered unrest from Haiti to Egypt. Surging food costs have raised the risk of malnutrition for 1 billion Asians, according to the Asian Development Bank as wheat, corn and soybeans have risen to records this year.

“The crop damage in Myanmar has fueled concern over tight global supplies and prompted importers to rush for the grain,” Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of the research department at IDO Securities Co., said today in Tokyo. “Any supply disruptions may stoke panic buying.”

Thailand, the world’s biggest exporter, will sell 500,000 metric tons to Malaysia, Thai government spokesman Wichianchote Sukchotrat told reporters, saying the sale had been agreed to by Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej. The shipment, sold at market prices, will begin to arrive within days, Wichianchote said today.

The cyclone in Myanmar was “a horrible tragedy,” investor Jim Rogers said at a press conference in Singapore today. “But it also means that prices of everything have got to go higher because Myanmar cannot produce any more,” said Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

`Dire Need’

Myanmar had been expected to export 600,000 tons of rice this year, including to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. The Rome-based United Nations agency had forecast world exports at 29.9 million tons. The estimate of the submerged farmland came from Unicef, which said 1 million people “are in dire need of immediate supplies.”

If Myanmar becomes a net importer it “will seriously affect the prices of rice globally,” Anthony Lam, regional general manager at Golden Resources Development International Ltd., said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong.

The Chicago rice contract, which touched a record $25.07 per 100 pounds on April 24, has gained as much as 8.3 percent since May 1. The benchmark export price of Thai 100 percent grade B white rice gained 10 percent to a record $941 a metric ton this week, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice importer, will seek shipments “aggressively” after the disaster in Myanmar, according to Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap. “Taking a cue from what happened to Myanmar, we have reports that rice demand is spiking,” Yap said yesterday in a telephone interview.

Higher Consumption

Global food prices will stay above 2004 levels through 2015, according to World Bank President Robert Zoellick. Droughts, low levels of food stockpiles, higher consumption in India and China and fuel prices are contributing to higher costs, Zoellick said yesterday at a news conference in Mexico City.

Nigeria, the world’s second-largest rice importer, dropped import levies yesterday for six months to ease prices, according to a statement from the agriculture ministry. The tariff cuts are meant “to cushion the impact of the global food crisis on vulnerable” citizens, the statement said.

The death toll from Cyclone Nargis may reach 100,000 as more bodies are found, Shari Villarosa, the U.S. charge d’affaires at the embassy in Yangon, said in a conference call yesterday.

State of Emergency

Myanmar’s government has declared a state of emergency in five low-lying provinces in the Irrawaddy delta. The five account for about two-thirds of the country’s rice production and half of its irrigated area, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. The main rice crop is due to be sown from next month.

Forecasts for the nation’s rice output may be cut because of the crop damage, according to Concepcion Calpe, a senior economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization. A drop in exports from Myanmar or increased imports to the nation would lead to “further tightening” of the world rice market, Calpe wrote in an e-mail.

Estimates differ for Myanmar’s pre-storm rice production. The Food and Agriculture Organization has forecast output of 18.9 million tons of milled rice in the crop year to Oct. 31. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast production of 11.3 million tons. The FAO’s figures are those of Myanmar’s government. Its export estimate is based on the amount the government reportedly allowed exporters to buy from farmers.

The damage from the cyclone was “huge,” and Myanmar may be forced to seek imports of rice, Chookiat Ophaswongse, the president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said on May 6.

The delta is “one of the most densely populated areas of Myanmar, about 10 million people are affected,” Unicef Representative in Myanmar Ramesh Shrestha said. “We suspect that 1 million people are in dire need of immediate supplies.”